India to see 90% of long period average rainfall this monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average, warning of a 60% chance of "deficient" rainfall and a delayed arrival in Kerala.

By Newsroom

Published 29 May 2026 at 11:06 am IST

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has further reduced its estimate of upcoming monsoon rainfall to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% forecast issued in April. This represents the lowest-ever forecast issued by the IMD in the immediate run-up to the monsoon season.

According to weather officials, there is a 60% probability that the monsoon rain will fall below 90%, a threshold the IMD officially classifies as "deficient."

While the agency does not have official criteria to formally declare a "drought," its metrics strongly indicate a significant risk of highly deficient rainfall.

IMD Director General M. Mohapatra stated that northwest, central, and southern India are the regions most likely to witness below-normal rainfall. He added that both day and night temperatures across these regions are expected to remain "on the higher side."